Trends in the international structure of trade. The main trends in the development of international trade in modern conditions. The main trends in the development of modern international trade

International economic relations characterize the forms of communication and methods of influence of all countries of the world in the field of economic cooperation in the system of the world economy. In the structure of international economic relations, reflecting international connections, includes the following real processes:

International trade in goods and services;

International movement of capital, technology and foreign investment;

international labor migration;

International trade in financial instruments (currency, securities, loans) and international settlements;

International relationships in the field of information, R&D, etc.

Economic policy of the state;

Let's start studying the course with world trade. World trade is the sphere of international commodity-money relations, a specific form of exchange of goods and services between the buyer and seller of different countries. The main trends in the development of world trade:

Rapid renewal of the product range associated with the emergence of knowledge-intensive industries and high-tech industries on the markets;

The deepening of the international division of labor and specialization increases the exchange of parts and assemblies that are manufactured at enterprises in different countries. The final product is the result of specialization, cooperation and foreign trade;

A special place in modern world trade is occupied by trade in the results of intellectual property: patents, know-how, licenses;

Significantly increased the volume of trade between developed countries and with approximately the same scientific and technical potential;

The role of transnational corporations (TNCs) has increased. They account for more than 60% of foreign trade.

World trade is characterized by three indicators:

Foreign trade turnover

Commodity structure

Geographic structure

Foreign trade turnover is the sum of the value of exports and imports of a country. The value volume is calculated for a certain period of time at current prices using current rates. The physical volume of foreign trade is calculated at constant prices and makes it possible to make the necessary comparisons and determine the real dynamics.

Commodity structure of world trade by the beginning of the XXI century. has undergone significant changes:

The share of food, raw materials and fuel decreased from 2/3 of the world trade turnover (the first half of the 20th century) to ¼ of the trade turnover.

The share of manufacturing products increased from 1/3 to ¾ of the turnover.

More than 1/3 of all world trade is currently trade in machinery and equipment.

The exchange of services has increased significantly: scientific, technical, commercial, financial and credit, etc.

New types of services appeared: engineering, leasing, consulting, information and computing services.

Geographic structure of world trade.

In international practice, all countries of the world are divided into three main groups: developed countries with market economy, countries in transition and developing countries.

According to the classification of the research service of the IMF, 29 countries are classified as developed, the same number are in transition, and 125 are developing countries.

Developed countries account for 56.3% of world GDP and 75.1% of world exports of goods and services. They are home to only 15.4% of the world's population. Developing countries cover 78% of the world's inhabitants, produce only 37.6% of world GDP, and export only 20.3% of the world's goods and services. Among the developed countries, the leader is the United States, whose share in world GDP is 21.4% of the world; among developing countries is China, whose GDP is 12.1% of the world. Russia retains its leadership only among countries with a transitional policy. The share of Russian GDP accounts for 2.6% of the world's GDP, Russian citizens make up only 2.4% of the world's population.

As the facts testify, the center and the periphery are quite clearly visible in the structure of the world economy.

The hierarchical structure of the world economy does not mean once and for all a given distribution of places. There is a process of gradual penetration of individual countries of the periphery into the center. Among them, the so-called newly industrialized countries of Southeast Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc.) and some countries of Latin America (Brazil, Argentina), standing on the threshold of joining the group of industrialized countries, stand out noticeably.

The deepening interdependence of the countries of the center and the periphery, despite the contradictory nature of this process, will increasingly contribute to the integration of national economies into the world economy.

The classification of countries adopted in 1980 requires a more differentiated approach. The main differences between "developed" and "less developed" countries are largely manifested in per capita income. The per capita income level is an indicator of the degree of industrial and socio-economic development of the country.

The poorest countries, which are still called underdeveloped, are characterized by a low degree of industrialization, limited mechanization of agricultural production, low capital-labor ratio and low per capita incomes. These countries are home to 27% of the world's population and account for 6% of world income. MOST OF THE POPULATION LIVES ON THE VERGE OF WARNING: per capita income is generally 6-7% of that in the US. The poorest countries are located in Africa - Somalia, Ethiopia, Ghana, etc.

The group of developing countries proper is poor, but accumulating capital and developing their industry and market mechanisms of management. They have fairly large urban populations and stable, though not high, per capita income growth. Their per capita income varies within 10-30% of the US level. The countries of this group are located on all continents and include part of the countries of the Middle East, India, Egypt, Mexico. They make up 17% of the world's population and account for 11% of world income.

The group of newly industrialized countries is characterized by rapidly developing industry and dynamic per capita income, which reaches 50% of the US level. Trinidad, Israel, South Korea can serve as an example of such countries. Together they make up 3% of the inhabitants of the Earth and receive 3% of the world's income.

Developed countries have a high-tech and highly specialized industry, which allows them to receive high per capita incomes. This includes the USA, Canada, Western European countries, Australia, Japan, New Zealand. Per capita incomes in these countries (except Switzerland) are somewhat lower than in the United States.

Until recently, about 33% of the world's population lived in socialist countries and received approximately 28% of world income. Deep reforms on the way to a market economy, carried out since the early 1990s, have changed the status of these states. As is known, during the period 1992-2002 GDP in Russia decreased by 40%. At present, as a result of the external economic conjuncture, the situation is changing towards economic growth.

The main trends in the development of world trade

International economic relations characterize the forms of communication and methods of influence of all countries of the world in the field of economic cooperation in the system of the world economy. The structure of international economic relations, reflecting international relations, includes the following real processes˸

International trade in goods and services;

International movement of capital, technology and foreign investment;

international labor migration;

International trade in financial instruments (currency, securities, loans) and international settlements;

International relations in the field of information, R&D, etc.

Economic policy of the state;

Let's start studying the course with world trade. World trade is the sphere of international commodity-money relations, a specific form of exchange of goods and services between the buyer and seller of different countries. The main trends in the development of world trade˸

Rapid renewal of the product range associated with the emergence of knowledge-intensive industries and high-tech industries on the markets;

The deepening of the international division of labor and specialization increases the exchange of parts and assemblies that are manufactured at enterprises in different countries. The final product is the result of specialization, cooperation and foreign trade;

A special place in modern world trade is occupied by trade in the results of intellectual property˸ patents, know-how, licenses;

Significantly increased the volume of trade between developed countries and with approximately the same scientific and technical potential;

The role of transnational corporations (TNCs) has increased. They account for more than 60% of foreign trade.

Three indicators characterize world trade˸

Foreign trade turnover

Commodity structure

Geographic structure

Foreign trade turnover is the sum of the value of exports and imports of a country. The value volume is calculated for a certain period of time at current prices using current rates. The physical volume of foreign trade is calculated at constant prices and makes it possible to make the necessary comparisons and determine the real dynamics.

Commodity structure of world trade by the beginning of the XXI century. has undergone significant changes

The share of food, raw materials and fuel decreased from 2/3 of the world trade turnover (the first half of the 20th century) to ¼ of the trade turnover.

The share of manufacturing products increased from 1/3 to ¾ of the turnover.

More than 1/3 of all world trade is currently trade in machinery and equipment.

The exchange of scientific, technical, commercial, financial and credit services, etc. has increased significantly.

New types of services appeared: engineering, leasing, consulting, information and computing services.

Geographic structure of world trade.

In international practice, all countries of the world are divided into three main groups: developed countries with market economies, countries with economies in transition and developing countries.

According to the classification of the research service of the IMF, 29 countries are classified as developed, the same number are in transition, and 125 are developing countries.

The main trends in the development of world trade - the concept and types. Classification and features of the category "Main trends in the development of world trade" 2015, 2017-2018.

One of the characteristic features international trade throughout the post-war period, its growth rate is 1.5 times higher than the growth rate of world production, which indicates its importance for the development and growth of the world economy as a whole.

AT modern conditions the dominance of transnational companies in the world economy, characterized by significant volumes of capital outflow in the form of foreign direct investment, there are new factors in the development of international trade. The strengthening of the role of capital export not only does not lead to a reduction trade in goods but, conversely, contributes to the growth of international trade.

Investments of foreign capital in the economies of other countries are carried out, as a rule, in export industries, which increases the degree of specialization of these countries in the world economy, leads to an increase in the supply of their goods to the world market. In addition, the export of capital itself, especially in entrepreneurial form, entails the export of goods, as it is associated with the supply of means of production for enterprises created abroad.

International trade is currently a dynamically developing subsystem of the world economy, the stable and sustainable growth of which was influenced by factors such as:

• – deepening of the international division of labor, internationalization and globalization of production;
• - transnational competition, contributing to the renewal of fixed capital, the creation of new sectors of the economy, accelerating the reconstruction of old ones;
• – liberalization of international trade through the regulation of its World trade organization(WTO);
• – active activity of transnational companies in the world market;
• - increasing the scale of foreign direct investment, contributing to the strengthening of the export potential of the host countries and the growth of international trade;
• – development of trade and economic integration processes: elimination of regional barriers, formation of free trade zones, common markets, etc.;
• - the dynamic development of some developing countries, the emergence of new industrial countries from among them with an economic model oriented to the external market;
• - the transfer by economically developed countries of many types of production to peripheral countries, contributing to the intensification of exchange between these groups of countries.

The current stage of development of international trade is determined by the features that characterize it as one of the most actively developing subsystems of the world economy:

• - the accelerated growth of international trade after the Second World War;
• - the predominant growth of the foreign trade sphere in comparison with the general rates of economic development of countries;
• - the predominance of the share of developed countries in the export and import of goods;
• - active expansion and increase in the volume of foreign trade of the states included in the integration economic associations;
• - uneven development of foreign trade of individual countries;
• - increase in the share of developing countries in international trade;
• - a significant expansion of the range of goods entering the channels of international trade (diversification of international trade);
• - an increase in the share of manufacturing products and a reduction in the share of raw materials;
• - the predominance of industrial countries in the export of manufactured goods;
• – reduction in the share of raw materials and mineral fuels in the total value of world exports, mainly due to the share of raw materials;
• - reducing the share of food in world trade;
• - multidirectional movement of prices for industrial goods, on the one hand, and for raw materials, fuel and foodstuffs- with another;
• - leading in the field of foreign trade activities of transnational companies, becoming the main subjects of international trade;
• - the confrontation between the principles of free trade and protectionism in the foreign trade activities of countries;
• – development of countertrade on a barter or clearing basis;
• – high concentration of international trade in the group of the first ten most developed countries (more than 50% of the total trade volume);
• - the excess of the growth rate of international trade in services over the corresponding growth rate of trade in goods.

Industrialized countries dominate world trade, accounting for 70% of world exports and 71% of imports. The export of developing countries is estimated at 21%, as for the export of countries with economies in transition, it is only 9%.

Industrialized countries trade predominantly with each other, as about 80% of imports and exports are accounted for by this group.

On the other hand, the economies of developing countries are 2/3 dependent on imports from the industrialized group of countries and exports to their markets. Only 26% of their imports and exports are carried out within this group of countries.

The relative importance of the European Union, the United States and Japan is evident in both imports and exports. Among developing countries, Asia is responsible for more than ¼ of imports and exports, while the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East account for 14% or less. Overall, developing countries account for 25% of world trade.

Comparative analysis shows that the importance of Europe, North America, Japan and Southeast Asia in world trade is beyond doubt.

The world's largest traders are Germany and the United States. Japan, France, Great Britain, Italy and Germany account for about 50% of world trade. Also enjoying impressive gains in trade are the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, China and Singapore, which currently occupy positions in the list of 17 world traders. In conclusion, it can be noted that the 10 most major countries accounts for more than 60% of world trade, the remaining 40% of trade - with 160 other countries.

Even sadder is the fact that the 100 smallest trading countries account for less than 15% of all world trade.

Considering the commodity structure of world trade, we can say that finished products account for 70% of international trade, the rest is raw materials.

Among the raw materials, the share of fuel is the largest - 9.8%; followed by food - 9.6%; trade in raw materials, ore, metals is 7.6%.

Automotive products are the main commodity group - they account for 10% of world trade.

Trade in chemicals is 8.6%; textiles, clothing and various consumer goods - 13%.

It should be noted that the share of trade is currently growing. finished goods and the share of trade in raw materials is decreasing.

This applies in particular to developing countries whose trade has traditionally been concentrated in raw materials. It is difficult for developing countries to hope to succeed through their growth in world trade. The advantages fall to the share of countries engaged in the export of manufactured goods.

The study of the topic of international trade in services faces significant methodological difficulties related to the definition of the essence of the concept. Until relatively recently, there was no consensus at all as to what exactly service, and even now in the expert community there is no unity in the definition of this term. AT various reviews, teaching aids dictionaries, one can come across a fairly wide range of views on this concept.

For the most part, experts build their reasoning on the opposition of the concepts of “goods” and “services”: it is noted that, unlike goods, services are intangible, short-lived, cannot be stored and stored, are intangible, etc.

A number of analysts define services as a specific product of labor that does not acquire a material form and whose use value, unlike the material product of labor, lies in the useful result of labor. Professor R. I. Khasbulatov in this regard writes that services related to consumer goods are not much different from labor process; “It contains all five elements of labor: the means of labor, the object of labor, technology, organization and labor itself as an expedient human activity” .

Fedyakina L.N. in his very complete and modern textbook addressed to students, he proposes the following concept: "services are benefits provided through various types of activities aimed directly at the consumer and on his order."

Professor Platonova I.N. notes: “services serve as heterogeneous units that are produced to order and include changes in the conditions of consumption, are realized on the basis of the activities of producers, taking into account consumer demand. Upon completion of the production process, they are provided to consumers.

The IMF gives the following interpretation: “services are the result of production activities that changes the state of consuming units or facilitates the exchange of products or financial assets.

The verdict is the words of M. Castells: "The only common feature that unites the types of activities in the service sector is that there is no such feature."

Huge expert work was done during the preparation of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which made it possible to identify the most common qualitative a sign of uschug associated with the fact that their production - it is an activity, a result (or product) which is aimed at meeting the needs of other persons on the basis of contractual relations between the producer and the consumer of services, with the exception of activities carried out on the basis of labor relations. This approach led to the creation of the Classification of Services, which served as a basis for future negotiations on the liberalization of trade in services, the development of public policy and other practical purposes.

An important result of the activities of the GATS experts was the definition of the concept of “international trade in services”, as well as overcoming the contradiction between the so-called tradable (capable of international exchange) and non-tradable (not subject to exchange due to their nature), as a result of which most of the services produced and consumed on the domestic market, was classified as non-tradable. This approach was due to the fact that the very concept of “trade” was usually associated with cross-border exchange, when the producer and consumer of the object of exchange were on opposite sides of the customs border, and the object itself crossed this border (for example, postal parcels). If the service was provided and consumed without crossing the border, then it was perceived as non-tradable. This category included hotels, restaurants, utilities, educational, social, personal, health services, etc., as incapable of moving abroad. Meanwhile, in today's globalizing world, which is characterized by active cross-border movement of all factors of production, most types of services have also become an object of international exchange.

As a result, the expert community managed to reach an agreement that services become tradable if they are supplied in one of four ways:

• - cross-border supply;
• - consumption abroad;
• - commercial presence;
• - moving individuals.

It is obvious that in the modern world the role of services in the development of all countries and the world economy is growing. In 2015, they accounted for about 70% of world GDP, while in 1980 this figure was 53%, and in 1995 - 63%. Thus, over the past 20 years, the participation of the service sector in the formation of the world gross product has increased by 7 percentage points. This trend of growth in the influence of the service sector was observed in all countries, although with different dynamics. The share of services in GDP in high-income countries is approaching 80%, in middle-income countries it is approaching 60%, and even in low-income countries it is close to 50%. However, within each of these groups, the degree of participation of services in the formation of GDP varies greatly across countries. largest specific gravity services in GDP was observed (%): in Gibraltar -100, Hong Kong - 92.3, Luxembourg - 86. High participation of services in GDP (%): France - 79, Greece - 78.5, Cyprus -79.3, Canada - 78, Italy - 73.3, Germany - 71.3. In the BRICS countries, this figure was (%): in Brazil - 67.5, Russia - 62.0, India - 55.3, China - 43.6, South Africa - 65.8. In low-income countries, the share of services in GDP varies widely (%): Jamaica - 64.6, Haiti - 57, Ghana - 37.4, Mali - 38, Nigeria - 35.2, Algeria - 30.2 , Angola - 24.6, Sierra Leone - 21, Equatorial Guinea - 3.8.

The growth in the influence of the service sector is accompanied by an increase in the number of people employed in this area. The highest value of this indicator is typical for: the USA - 81% of the total number of employed, Luxembourg - 81, Great Britain - 79, Denmark and Norway - 78 each, the Netherlands - 72, Japan - 70%. In the BRICS countries: in Brazil - 61%, Russia - 58%, India - 27%, China - 33%, South Africa - 70%. In low-income countries, this sector typically employs less than a third of the population. For example, in Cambodia - 19%, Uganda - 28%, Vanuatu - 31%.

With regard to the pace of development of world trade in services, in recent years they are ahead of the growth rate of trade in goods. From 1980 to 2015, the volume of trade in goods increased by 8.2 times, and in services - by 13.5 times, when compared with 1990, this figure will look like 5.4 and 6.5 times, when compared with 2000 we get the result of 2.9 and 3.3 times.

Comparison of the volume of world exports of services in relation to the export of goods reveals that this ratio has increased over the past 20 years, and reached 29% by 2015 (Fig. 5).

Figure 5 - Dynamics of world exports of goods and services.

Thousand USD

Source: compiled by URL:

Until relatively recently, most of the international trade in services was concentrated in the group of developed countries. In the last decade, there has been an active involvement in this sector of developing states. According to data for 2015, they accounted for 31.0% of world exports of services, despite the fact that in 2000 this figure was 23%, and in 1990 - 18.3%.

The participation of developing countries in world imports is even higher: in 2015 - 39%, while in 2000 it was at the level of 27.4%, in 1990 - 22.2%. As for the countries in transition, their share in both world exports and imports of services is small, in 2015 - about 3.0% of both world exports and imports (See Table 6, Fig. 6).

Figure 6 - World export of services by groups of countries in 2010 and 2015, million dollars

Source: compiled by URL:

http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

A number of interrelated external and internal factors contributed to the outstripping growth of developing countries' trade in services. The most important of them include the growth of internationalization and transnationalization of the service sector itself and the transfer of many industries and activities associated with these processes on the territory of developing countries with the active participation of transnational corporations (TNCs); achievement of scientific and technological progress in the field of transport, telecommunications and informatics and the associated wide spread of new types of entrepreneurial activity in the field of services, such as information, consulting services, outsourcing, leasing, etc.; the determining role of the financial sector in the development of all sectors of the economy; strengthening of the trend of trade and investment liberalization; a new round in the development of integration processes - the formation of new groupings, the transformation of traditional ones, etc.

The export of services has become a major source of income for many developed and developing countries. For example, the export of services from Luxembourg reaches 180% of GDP, the Netherlands - 96, Singapore - 90.4, Lebanon - 84.5, Aruba - 83, Equatorial Guinea - 73.1, Barbados - 69.1, Ireland - 63%.

The structure of world trade in services, as we noted, is quite diversified. However, international statistics currently single out the three largest positions - services related to trade in goods, travel (tourism) and transport services, classifying other activities as "other commercial". Since all business, information, telecommunications, financial and other types of new services fall into the latter category, its share in the total volume of trade is growing. In the 1980s "other" accounted for 34% of world exports of services, in 1990 - 37.7%, in 2000 - 44.7%, and in 2015 - 53.1%. The share of transport services has decreased since 1990, respectively, from 23.2% to 18.1%, and of tourism services from 32.1 to 25.5%.

Table 6 - International trade in services by group countries, billion dollars_

Export
Develop-
developed
Import
Develop-
developed

Source: URL:

http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

This trend is especially pronounced in developed countries, where the share of other commercial services in 2015 was 60.1 % - in exports and 57.0% in imports. In developing countries, this figure was at the level of 40% in both exports and imports.

Figure 7 - Structure of exports of services in 2005 and 2015, % Source: compiled by URL:

http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

Thus, trade in “other services”, which include, as we noted, financial, telecommunications, computer, personal and others, is only a few hundred modern species services, the list of which is constantly expanding, is developing at a faster pace than the export and import of traditional types of services. The year 2015 is indicative, which is characterized by a decrease in the volume of world trade in all respects, despite the fact that the reduction in the position “other services” turned out to be minimal: with a decrease in the export of transport services by 9.9% and services related to servicing trade in goods, 5.9%, supplies of other services decreased by 5.5% (Table 7).

Table 7 - Structure of international trade in services by types and groups of countries in 2014 and 2015, billion USD_

Countries in transition

The developed countries

Source: compiled by URL:

http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

As noted above, the bulk of trade in services takes place in developed countries.

Thus, the export of services of the EU countries in 2015 amounted to 2235.0 billion dollars, the USA - 710.2 billion, Japan - 162.2 billion dollars. including: India - 156.3, Singapore - 139.6, China - 286.5, Hong Kong (PRC) - 104.5. Export of African countries - 102.3 billion dollars. Export of services of the CIS countries - 92.2 billion dollars.

In the world export of services related to servicing trade in goods, 52.6% comes from the EU, 12.4% from the US and 14.5% from China. In export transport services the countries of North America account for 10.9%, Europe - 43.3%, in world imports, respectively - 29.9% and 10.7%. The share of Asian countries in the export of transport services is growing - 26.6%, in import - 34.5%. The share of the countries of South and Central America in the world market of services is small - 3.1 and 4.5%, respectively, Africa - 3.1% in exports and 2.3% - in imports. At the same time, developed countries act as net exporters of transport services, while developing countries mostly import these services.

In the field of export tourism services the share of North American countries is 17.1%, in the field of imports - 13.3%. The share of EU countries in exports - 34.3% and imports 36.2%, Asia in exports - 30.0% and imports - 30.9%, countries of South and Central America - 4.4 and 4.3%, respectively. The participation of the countries of the Near and Middle East was 4.2% in the export of tourism services and 7.5% in imports. The share of African countries is 4.2 and 2.2%, respectively.

In export other commercial services the participation of the countries of North America -17.7% in exports and 12.9% in imports and the EU - 48.0% - in exports and 45.0% - in imports also prevails. The share of Asian countries in world exports of other commercial services -23.0% and in imports - 24.6%, countries of South and Central America -2.2 and 3.0%, respectively. The participation of the countries of the Near and Middle East was 1.7% - in exports and 3.0% in imports of services, and Africa in world exports and imports was about 1.0 and 1.2%.

As we noted, the number of services cannot be accurately calculated, and from among the “other” commercial services, international experts single out ten of the largest groups for analytical purposes. Among them, computer and telecommunication services, financial and insurance services, services related to the sale of intellectual property rights stand out for their volume (Table 8).

Table 8 - World exports of selected types of commercial services in 2014 and 2015, USD billion_

Source: compiled by URL:

http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

The cheapening of services and their technical availability, the growth in the speed of information and telecommunication technologies have opened up completely new horizons for the development of many countries of the world, improving the quality of their economic and social life. The factors of time and distance have been practically destroyed, the world is increasingly perceived as a “global village”, a virtual market space is being created, information technology is becoming a key element in increasing competitiveness and reducing production costs. In addition, they have a serious impact on the social sphere, becoming a source of revolutionary changes in the field of culture, health, education, employment and leisure. Therefore, the country's movement along the path of progress can be judged by the indicators of the provision of the population with means of communication - fixed and mobile phones, computers, access to the Internet. The generally accepted indicators characterizing the development of the country in this area are: the number of telephone lines per 100 inhabitants of the country, mobile phones, Internet users, the total number of specified funds in the country, as well as penetration indices.

In 2015, according to the International Telecommunication Union, the number of mobile phones in the world has almost reached the population - 7.2 billion units, and the real users of mobile communications are 4.9 billion people. Most mobile users were in China - 1295 million subscribers and India - 930 million subscribers. AT Western Europe, where almost the entire population uses mobile communications, the number of connections is 540 million, in North America - 390. Great progress in this area is noted in Latin America, where there are 725 million subscribers and in Africa - 930 million. The number of users in the Middle East - 390 million As for the Internet, at the end of 2015, 3.2 billion people, i.e. 44% of the world's population had access to this modern means of communication. This process is especially important for developing, and most importantly, the poorest countries. In these countries, with the help of the mobile Internet, small businesses are currently developing, providing access to knowledge and modern technologies. Nearly half of the 1.1 billion Internet users are now in Asia, 519 million in Europe, 274 million in North America, 255 million in Latin America and the Caribbean, 167 million in Africa, 90 million in Middle East, 24.3 million - in Australia and Oceania. At the same time, in 2015, there were 674.5 million Internet users in China, more than in any other country in the world, they already cover almost 50% of the population. Enormous progress can be seen in India, Brazil, and even in the poorest countries such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, where the number of users has grown by 538 and 462 times since 2000, respectively. This is a very important factor, the effect of which can change the development trajectory of the poorest countries. According to Strategy&(PwC), ubiquitous access to the Internet at the global level will allow 7% of the world's population (500 million people) to overcome poverty, and increase global GDP by $6.7 trillion. In developed countries, only 6.7% of households are connected to the Internet. In general, for developing countries, this figure is 34.1%, in Asia-Pacific countries - 39.0%, Africa - 10.7%

The leader in the field of export of information, telecommunication and computer (ITC) services in 2014 were the EU countries - 256.8 billion dollars, 62.7% of the world export of this group of services. In second place is the United States - 55 billion dollars (13.8%), followed by China - 20.2 billion dollars (4.5%), Switzerland - 12.0 billion dollars (2.9%). Russia is in 9th place - 3.0 billion dollars (0.9%). In the import of information, telecommunications and computer services in 2014, the share of the EU was 64.2% (160.1 billion dollars), in second place is the United States - the share of 13.5% (32.4 billion dollars), then Switzerland - 5.2% ($13.2 billion), China - 3.1% ($10.8 billion). Russia was in 7th place in terms of imports of ITC services - $6.8 billion, 2.5%.

A new phenomenon is the so-called. mobile trading or m-trading - transactions carried out through Mobile Internet and smartphones. In general, this type of service is only gaining momentum, its share in e-commerce is 3% even in the US, and in Europe - 7%. However, the number of smartphones is growing, and this allows us to expect an acceleration in the development of m-commerce. Now China is in first place in the world in terms of the number of smartphones - 574.2 million, the United States is in second - 184.1 million, India - in third -167.9 million, Russia - in fourth -58.2 million, and it has already overtaken Japan, where 57.4 million are registered.

The importance of developing countries in global trade in ITC services is growing as their economic weight increases. This is typical for such Asian countries as China, India, South Korea, Hong Kong (PRC), Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, as well as for Brazil and Mexico. However, the results they have achieved so far remain incomparable with those of developed countries. In addition, many developing countries are characterized by a negative balance in trade in services, while developed countries, as already mentioned, mostly act as net exporters of services.

As we can see, international trade in services, which is developing at a fairly rapid pace, functions as a kind of instrument that ensures progress in the development of the international division of labor, the growth of specialization and production cooperation. On the other hand, services have long since become an independent sphere of international exchange, the importance of which is rapidly growing, paving the way for the development of trade in goods and the movement of capital. Another important aspect of the high role of the service sector in the development of the world economy is associated with its innovative character in general. This area has a more skilled workforce. The proportion of people with higher and specialized education is higher than in other sectors. In business services, more than a third have above-average qualifications, and in the computer services sector, 45% have higher education.

In Russia, the service sector has not yet received sufficient development. Foreign trade in services still lags behind the growth rate of trade in goods. The ratio of the value of exports of services and the value of exports of goods is declining and currently stands at about 11%, while in the world, as we indicated, this figure has reached 29%.

The dynamics of the development of trade in services in Russia differs from global trends. If in the world the growth rate of trade in services outstrips the rate of trade in goods, then in Russia the situation is reversed. During the period from 2000 to 2015, the value of exports of goods increased by 5.3 times, exports of services - by 4.6 times. The ratio of exports of services to exports of goods is decreasing: in 1995 it was 12.7%, in 2015 - 12.0%. Unlike trade in goods, trade in services in Russia develops with a negative balance. In 2015, it amounted to USD 37.0 billion (in 2011 - USD 35.9 billion). At the same time, it was the most significant for items related to the provision of tourism, construction, financial, insurance, and most business services.

In 2015, Russia's foreign trade in services declined, although to a lesser extent than in goods: the decline was 21.2% in exports and 26.7% in imports. The reasons for this decline were the same as for trade in goods: Western sanctions that reduced access to financial services and modern technologies, the depreciation of the ruble, rising prices, falling business activity and consumer demand, geopolitical issues.

In the international exchange of services, the main forms for Russia, unlike most developed countries, are in relation to export - cross-border trade, and in relation to import - the consumption of services by individuals abroad. The share of foreign companies in Russia providing services through a commercial presence is small. Also, the marketing of services abroad through the commercial presence of Russian legal entities and individuals is not developed. Thus, both in terms of the structure of supplies and in terms of their methods, Russia's trade in services does not reflect the progressive shifts that are taking place at the global level.

In the structure of Russian exports and imports of services, transport services and travel account for the largest share, however, as in the rest of the world, their share tends to decrease. In 1995, the share of transport services in the total volume of exports of services was 35%, travel - 40.6%; in 2005 - 36 and 23%; in 2012 - 31 and 17%, in 2015

33.0 and 16%. In 2015, the export of transport services fell by 18.1% compared to the level of 2014, and the export of travel - by 26%.

As for the import of services, in 1995 the share of transport services was 16%, the share of trips was 57%. After 10 years in 2005, it amounted to transport services 13%, travel - 44%; in 2012

15 and 39.3%, in 2015 - 13 and 40% respectively. In 2015, compared to the previous year, imports fell by 25% for transport services and 26% for travel.

In Russia, as in the rest of the world, trade in other services is growing ahead of schedule. If the total trade in services increased over the period from 2000 to 2015 in exports by 4.6 times, and in imports - 5.4 times, then trade in other business services increased over this period by 13 times in exports and 9.8 times. times for import.

The geographical structure of Russian trade in services, as well as in trade in goods, is dominated by non-CIS countries, but the participation of this segment is more noticeable: it accounts for 83% of exports and 93% of imports. The largest share belongs to the European Union. About 10% falls on the countries of North America, 8% - on Asia. By country, the largest volumes in 2014 accounted for (billion dollars): Great Britain (exports -4.5, imports -6.2), USA (3.7 and 6.7), Germany (4.2 and 7.5), Cyprus (3.0 and 5.6), the Netherlands (1.7 and 3.5). Exports to China amounted to 1.5 billion dollars, imports from this country - 2.1 billion dollars. With all these countries, the balance of trade in services is negative (Table 9).

Table 9 - Russia's foreign trade in services in 2015 (by international balance of payments terms), US$ mln_

		With far abroad	With CIS countries
Total services
Processing services for goods owned by other parties
Services for maintenance and repair of goods
Transport services
Construction
Insurance, services of state pension funds
Financial services
User fee intellectual property
Telecommunication, computer and information services

Modern trends in the development of world trade:

The dynamics of international trade is characterized by high rates of development

With a general growth in foreign trade, its dynamics in individual countries and regions is different

Foreign trade is growing at a faster pace than the overall rate of domestic economic development of countries

Export and import quotas of many countries increased

The geographical configuration of world trade in the post-war period is characterized asymmetrically. The share of developed countries in world exports is 70-75%, developing countries - 20%, former socialist countries - 10%.

Leading role in international trade - US, EU, Japan.

48.1% of turnover - "big seven"

Growth trends are not uniform in all regions of the developing world:

The share of NIEs in Southeast Asia in world exports is growing: in terms of the total volume of foreign trade, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia

The share of China is growing: the value volume has increased from $24 billion to $325 billion. $

Tends to reduce the role of African countries

The share of developing countries in Latin America is declining, with the exception of Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Chile.

To the share of Russia in the 20th century. - 1% of world exports and 0.8% of world imports

The main flow of international trade falls on the mutual trade of developed countries (? 67%)

27% - trade between developed and developing countries

6% for developed and developing countries on the one hand and countries with economies in transition on the other.

The commodity structure of world trade is changing:

The flow of goods involved in international trade is diversifying

The share of finished products in international trade is increasing

Increased international trade in chemical products

The share of international trade in raw materials and fuels is declining

In world trade, the share of all foodstuffs is decreasing

There is a trend of growth of textiles and clothing in world exports.

Foreign trade is the main form of world economic relations. In terms of dynamics and cost indicators, it is ahead of the growth of world production, the movement of capital and other types of foreign economic relations, which is one of the most important characteristics of the modern world economy. The growth rates of international export-import operations exceed the growth rates of the main segments of world production, incl. industrial goods, minerals and agricultural products.

The increasing importance of trade in the world economy, as well as its intensive development, are due to the objective process of globalization and the increased interdependence of most countries of the world. Significant progress in the development of the international division of labor contributed to the intensification of world commodity exchange.

In the field of trade exchange, international regimes and multilateral agreements were developed within the framework of the WTO, an international organization operating on the basis of a multilateral agreement that establishes the principles and rules of world trade. The activities of the WTO are aimed at the liberalization of export-import operations and, in particular, at the reduction and elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers.

A further increase in international trade was facilitated by a significant liberalization of the foreign trade policy of developing countries, the expansion of trade between them and, in addition, the preservation of favorable market conditions. industrial products in many developing and newly industrialized countries. The revolution in the field was also significant. information technologies and means of telecommunications.

The value of exports of office and telecommunications equipment since the early 1990s. almost doubled and reached in 1998 almost 15% of the total value of world trade.

An important factor growth in world trade is a significant increase in the re-export of manufactured goods manufactured in developing countries using components and materials imported under trade agreement systems.

In recent years, there have been significant changes in the structure of world trade. In particular, the share of communication and information technology services has increased significantly, while the share of trade in commodities and agricultural products has been declining.

Certain changes are also taking place in the geographical distribution of world trade. The trade of developing countries is gradually growing, but the volume of goods flows from the newly industrialized countries is growing at an especially rapid pace.

Among the countries with economies in transition, China's foreign trade is developing more dynamically, which allowed the country to enter the top ten largest trading powers in the world.

At the same time, a significant part of the world trade turnover - about a third of the world's export-import transactions - falls on the leading industrialized countries (USA, Germany and Japan). France, Great Britain, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, and Belgium are among the largest trading countries in the world.

34. Main characteristics of Russia's foreign trade activity.

FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY is an entrepreneurial activity in the field of international exchange of goods, works, services, information, results of intellectual activity, including exclusive rights to them (intellectual property).

In Russia, in order to stimulate the growth of the national economy, the Government of the Russian Federation and the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in accordance with the law, contribute to the development of foreign trade activities, including through the implementation of Federal and regional programs development of foreign trade activities. The federal program for the development of foreign trade activity is annually developed by the Government of the Russian Federation. This program contains: 1) forecast of the trade balance as an integral part of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation; 2) assessment of the current state and problems of trade and economic relations of the Russian Federation with foreign states; 3) a plan for external borrowing of the Russian Federation with a detailed description of the intended use of foreign loans; 4) a plan for export credits provided with the use of federal budget funds or under the guarantees of the Government of the Russian Federation; 5) a plan for servicing the external debt of the Russian Federation; 6) a plan of proceeds from servicing the debts of foreign states to the Russian Federation; 7) a list of measures of state foreign trade regulation, customs tariff rates and the limits of their possible change, quantitative restrictions on exports and imports, measures to protect the domestic market; 8) a list of measures to stimulate industrial, export for the corresponding year; 9) a register of cases of discrimination and violations of bilateral and multilateral obligations committed against Russian persons in the markets of individual states, and a list of measures taken and planned to protect the legitimate trade and economic interests of the Russian Federation.

The export of energy resources will remain one of the main directions of Russia's foreign trade activities until 2020.