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1.3.5 Leontief's paradox

It turned out that the capital-saturated USA, which, according to the theory, should export capital-intensive goods and import labour-saturated ones; in practice, on the contrary, labor-intensive goods were exported, and capital-intensive goods were imported. Repeated calculations by Leontiev and other researchers of the US commodity structure gave the same results. Calculations showed that Japan in the 1950s, being a clearly labor-surplus country, exported capital-intensive goods. India exported capital-intensive goods to the US. Calculations made in 1987 on 12 factors of production for 27 countries showed that in 30 cases out of 100 trade went in the opposite direction from the Heckscher-Ohlin theory.

Leontief's paradox is formulated in the following way: labor-saturated countries export capital-intensive products, capital-saturated countries export labour-intensive products. This is explained by the fact that in the United States expensive highly skilled labor is used, the share of which in production costs exceeds the cost of capital. A highly skilled labor force with high training costs can be viewed as capital.

In countries that supply their products to the United States, scarce capital is so expensive that its share in production costs exceeds that of cheap labor and raw materials. American exports are dominated by labor-intensive products, as highly skilled labor is employed. US imports are produced by a low-skilled labor force.

As a result, exports are more labor intensive than imports. Depending on the production technology, the same product can be labor-intensive in a labor-abundant country and capital-intensive in a capital-abundant country, which can occur in conditions of high elasticity of interchangeability of production factors. For example, rice in the United States is capital-intensive, because it is grown using advanced expensive equipment, in Vietnam rice is labor-intensive, mainly manual labor is used in its production.

http://www.ido.edu.ru/ffec/econ/ec12.html - 12-2

1.3.6 Product life cycle theory

Product life cycle theory is interesting in that it explains how the US, the birthplace of computers, has become a net importer of computers from developing countries.

According to this theory, goods go through a certain life cycle, covering the period from the moment a product enters the market until it leaves the market. It consists of four stages (introduction, growth, maturity, decline). Depending on what stage of the life cycle the product is at, the direction of its export and import and the country of production are determined.

Computers and similar high-tech products do appear first in highly developed countries. The development of new products requires high costs and highly skilled labor. In developed countries, especially in the United States, there are high incomes that allow risky research, competition, demanding consumers with high solvency, scientists, skilled designers, and engineers.

At the first stage of the product life cycle (introduction), an innovation is developed, the product is produced in small batches, which makes it very expensive. The sale of a new product is first carried out within the country of innovation; it is based on uniqueness, not price.

The product occupies an almost monopoly position in the market; then begins its export to developed countries with a similar market segment.

At the second stage (growth), the production of goods is still located in the country of innovation, but production begins in other developed countries. Production becomes more standardized, costs are reduced. The number of competitors is increasing, which, violating patent protection, adjust their production and reduce prices due to some modification of the product.

At the third stage (maturity), exports from the country of innovation are reduced. Large-scale standardized production is being carried out in many countries, including developing countries, since less skilled labor is required.

At the fourth stage (decline), production is concentrated in developing countries, the number of manufacturers is reduced, production technology allows the use of unskilled labor in mechanical large-scale production. The country of innovation becomes a net importer and can start developing another innovation.

The product life cycle theory shows the stages of movement of goods first, and then their production and export from a developed country to developing countries and countries with economies in transition.

1.4 Conclusions on Chapter 1

So, from the above, we can draw the following conclusions:

All over the world, international trade is part of everyday life. Countries trade with each other in the hope of profiting from the deals. And they get it, because trade allows states to exchange goods of which they have a surplus for what they need.

International trade is a form of communication between producers of different countries, arising on the basis of the international division of labor, and expresses their mutual economic dependence. International trade is the exchange of goods and services between state-national economies.

The term "foreign trade" refers to the trade of a country with other countries, consisting of paid import (import) and paid export (export) of goods.

Comparative Advantage - Main Engine international trade. Thus, we can conclude that the rational management of the economy - the use of a certain amount of limited resources to obtain the desired result - requires that any product be produced by the country that has the lowest costs, that is, the country that has comparative advantages.

The sum of exports and imports forms the turnover, and the difference between exports and imports is the trade balance. The trade balance can be positive (active) or negative (deficit, passive).

The basis of international trade is the traditional commercial trade for cash and credit. TO commercial trade also includes all types of countertrade: barter exchange, deliveries based on offset transactions, etc.

A special place in international trade is occupied by intra-company deliveries, which are carried out within the enterprises of one or another TNC at transfer, that is, transfer prices, which may be higher or lower than world prices.

Thus, the exchange of goods between countries is carried out on a commercial and non-commercial basis. Commercial exchange can be equivalent or non-equivalent.

An indicator of the profitability and disadvantage of the exchange is the ratio of export and import prices, which is called the "terms of trade".

Having considered some theories of international trade, we can draw the following conclusions:

Numerous economic theories explain the essence and role of foreign trade. Their goal is to determine the most effective ways to expand foreign trade and turn it into an effective factor in social and economic development. economic development. First of all, it should be borne in mind that there are two ways to carry out trade relations between countries: under conditions of free movement of goods (free trade) and under conditions of restrictions imposed by government agencies to protect, first of all, their national producer and exporter from foreign competition, i.e. protectionism. This is important to keep in mind because foreign trade theories justify the need for free trade or protectionism to varying degrees.

Mercantilism is a state policy aimed at making money (currency) through the development of foreign trade. Under the conditions of the policy of mercantilism, two main means of enriching the country were used - restricting the import of goods and encouraging their export.

According to Smith, when determining the international specialization of a country, i.e. what to produce and what to sell abroad, one should choose those goods that this country makes cheaper than others.

English economist of the early 19th century. David Ricardo was a supporter of free trade and attached great importance to the development of trade relations with other countries. In his theory, he showed the impact of foreign trade on consumption, production and the rate of profit. Ricardo saw the usefulness of foreign trade in that it increases the mass and variety of goods on which income can be spent. Ricardo showed that the possibilities of profitable commodity exchange between countries are much greater than A. Smith assumed. According to Ricardo's theory, each country should produce and export goods at a relatively lower cost, although they may be higher than in other countries.

Friedrich List (F. List, 1789-1846), who laid the foundations of the catch-up development model in the 40s. 19th century F. List rightly pointed out that the Smith-Ricardo theory ignores the fact of the uneven economic development of individual countries.

In the first half of the XIX century. Swedish economists E. Heckscher and B. Ohlin, continuing the teachings of Ricardo, came to the conclusion that international exchange stems from the relative abundance or relative scarcity of resources or factors of production (capital, labor, land) that are at the disposal of various countries. The comparative advantages of countries are determined by the factors of production that they have in abundance. International exchange is essentially an exchange of excess factors for rare (deficient) factors.

Product life cycle theory is interesting in that it explains how the US, the birthplace of computers, has become a net importer of computers from developing countries. According to this theory, goods go through a certain life cycle, covering the period from the moment a product enters the market until it leaves the market. It consists of four stages (introduction, growth, maturity, decline). Depending on what stage of the life cycle the product is at, the direction of its export and import and the country of production are determined.

Chapter 2. Foreign trade policy

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The Heckscher-Ohlin theory complements D. Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage.

The Heckscher-Ohlin theory states that a country exports goods that use a relatively abundant factor of production and imports goods that require relatively scarce resources to produce. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory complements the theory of comparative advantages of D. Ricardo and explains what their source is (in the excess of some resources and the scarcity of others).

Assume that country X has large land resources with a low population density. As a result, the land for conducting Agriculture will be a less scarce resource than in the rest of the world, and in workforce there will be a shortage. Under such conditions, according to the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, the country will export "land-intensive" goods and import labor-intensive goods (in Russia, natural resources are a relatively abundant factor of production, and labor is relatively scarce, which leads us to the export of raw materials and the import of labor-intensive goods).

In general, this theory is confirmed by facts, but requires certain clarifications (which revealed Leontiev's paradox). In particular, taking into account the foreign trade policy of the state and the heterogeneity of factors of production (for example, labor can be skilled and unskilled).

Paul Samuelson supplemented this theory with the factor price equalization theorem. According to it, the relative prices of goods involved in international trade gradually level off. The fact is that participation in international trade causes an increase in the use of an excess factor of production. As a result, its price increases (for example, the growth of exports of labor-intensive products from China led to an increase in wages in this country). The demand for a scarce factor of production decreases due to imports and the price falls.

Leontief's paradox

Wassily Leontiev analyzed US foreign trade in 1947 and 1951 The post-war US economy had a surplus of capital and a relative shortage of labor. According to the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, the share of capital-intensive products in US exports should increase, while the share of labor-intensive products should decrease. However, the results obtained by Leontiev showed that the share of labor-intensive goods in exports did not decrease, while the share of capital-intensive goods in imports did not increase. A lot of discussion began around the paradox, during which some of its causes were identified:

1.Escorting from the USA was labor intensive due to the advantage in a highly skilled workforce with a high salary, which, relative to the rest of the world, was a surplus resource.

2. The United States imported a lot of raw materials, the extraction of which required a large investment of capital. This was the reason for the high capital intensity of imports.

3. The United States used a tariff policy that prevented the import of labor-intensive goods.

Considering numerous studies devoted to the practical verification of the provisions and conclusions of the concept Heckscher Ohlin, should dwell on the work of the American economist Vasily Leontiev, who tried to determine the correctness of the thesis that a country with excess cheap factors of production exports goods that require these cheap factors for their production.

Leontief himself offered an explanation compatible with the theory of comparative advantage: the labor factor included in American exports was very specific because at that time the United States had a more skilled labor force than most of its partners. In his opinion, in any combination with a given amount of capital, one man-year of American labor is equivalent to three man-years of foreign labor. And this means that the United States is indeed labor surplus country and no there is no paradox.

Thus, the theory of allocation of factors of production allows us to explain the paradox Leontief taking into account differences in the quality of factors of production that are at the disposal of partners in international exchange.

The research done by V. Leontiev, served as the basis for the emergence model that takes into account the qualifications of the worker strength(or the primacy of skilled labor) . The American economist made the greatest contribution to the development of this model. Donald Kisnet.

Its essence is as follows: skilled labor, unskilled labor and capital participate in production. The relative abundance of professional personnel and a highly skilled labor force leads to the export of goods that require a large amount of skilled labor. The abundance of unskilled labor contributes to the export of goods for the production of which low qualifications are sufficient.

This model is a further modification and improvement of the theory Heckscher-Ohlin. The inclusion of skilled labor fits into its standard scheme: a country specializes in the production of a good that requires predominantly a surplus factor; The economic mechanism that ensures such specialization is the same as the equalization of prices for factors of production.

More recent work by Western economists used a classification that takes into account even more factors, including financial capital. al, skilled labor, unskilled labor, land suitable for agricultural production, other natural resources.

Representatives of the neoclassical direction have made numerous attempts to expand and improve static model Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson. For her dynamization factors such as: change in the structure of demand(G. D. Joyce) change endowments factors of production under the influence of active population growth, capital accumulation(theorem T.

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1. Leontief's paradox

Leontief's paradox refers to one of the phenomena in US international trade and is considered from the point of view of the analysis of historically developing theories of international trade as the movement of goods and capital.

The main form of international economic relations is international trade. Numerous economic theories explain the essence and role of foreign trade. Their goal is to determine the most effective ways to expand foreign trade and turn it into an effective factor in socio-economic development. Theoretical conclusions and recommendations are taken into account by government agencies and private companies when developing foreign trade tactics and strategies. The fundamental theories of international trade were developed in the era of the formation of the world market and the world economy. But they have not lost their significance in modern conditions because they provide answers to the eternal questions related to foreign trade: what and where to sell and buy.

First of all, it should be borne in mind that there are two ways to carry out trade relations between countries: under conditions of free movement of goods (free trade) and under conditions of restrictions imposed by government agencies to protect, first of all, their national producer and exporter from foreign competition, i.e. protectionism. This is important to keep in mind because foreign trade theories justify the need for free trade or protectionism to varying degrees.

1.1 Mercantilism

For many centuries, the main content of state policy in foreign trade was protectionism. During the formation of capitalism, when foreign trade began to play a large role in the enrichment of states, doctrines arose that explained the need for protectionism in foreign trade and were called mercantilism.

Mercantilism - it is a state policy aimed at making money (currency) through the development of foreign trade.

According to the mercantilists, wealth consists in money made of gold and silver. And, if there are no silver mines and gold placers in the country, silver and gold money can be earned by expanding the export of domestic goods to other countries.

In the era of mercantilism, re-export was also widely practiced and theoretically supported, i.e. resale of goods purchased cheaply in other countries, especially in colonial countries or in those countries that did not have their own merchant fleet. Holland in the 17th century, for example, made money primarily from the transportation and resale of foreign-made goods.

In conditions mercantilism policies two main means of enriching the country were used - restricting the import of goods and encouraging their export. The policy of mercantilism was reduced to maintaining an active trade balance by limiting the import of foreign goods for domestic consumption and encouraging the means of state policy to increase the export of domestically produced products. By prohibition or with the help of high customs duties the import of those goods that can be produced in a given country, as well as from those countries with which this country has a negative trade balance, was limited.

At the same time, the import of raw materials and semi-finished products, necessary for the production of export goods, was encouraged. The government stimulated the export of goods in every possible way, in particular, by returning to the exporter the taxes and excises paid by him, as well as by paying him a bonus, creating preferential terms for export to other countries through the conclusion of trade agreements, the conquest of colonies and other methods.

At the time of mercantilism in England there was a policy of banning the export of wool, raw leather, metals, felting clay, machines for knitting gloves. Violations were punishable by a fine, imprisonment, and even execution as for high treason. On the contrary, the import of raw materials for industry, including linen yarn, was encouraged by the abolition of duties or the issuance of premiums. The consistently pursued policy of mercantilism allowed England to be the first to start the industrial revolution and become a world leader in industrial production and exports.

In addition to controlling the export-import of goods in the era of mercantilism, the state exercised strict control over the export of money in its pure form. Many countries had a policy of spending money earned by foreigners. So, for example, foreign merchants could not take out the money they received for goods sold in a given country. They had to spend them by buying local goods. In many countries, there was a complete ban on leaving the country for engineers and even workers in manufactories and factories - carriers of knowledge and production skills, i.e. technologies.

All countries passed through mercantilism, because the policy of mercantilism corresponded to the level of development of the productive forces of the period of manufacturing production and the beginning of industrial capitalism. During the time of Peter I in Russia, the formation of a national industry was effectively protected, the export of iron, sailing cloth, ropes and other processed goods was stimulated.

And today, many countries of a catch-up type of development use the main mechanisms of mercantilism. Modern Russia also strives to maintain an active trade balance. It succeeds mainly through the sale of mineral resources (oil and gas), and not industrial goods.
The export of raw materials is contrary to the ideas and practice of mercantilism. Theorists of mercantilism in Western Europe and in Russia, for example, I.T. Pososhkov, who wrote at the beginning of the XVIII century. "The Book of Poverty and Wealth", categorically opposed the export of raw materials. The export of raw materials, from their point of view, is the export of employment, it is the maintenance of production in other countries, potential competitors.

1.2 Adam Smith and his theory of absolute advantage

Free trade was discussed in England only when it was already becoming a world industrial power, and it needed supplies of cheap imported raw materials, food and markets for industrial products. The idea of free trade was put forward English economist Adam Smith in the last quarter of the 18th century.

A. Smith attached great importance to foreign trade. He noted that foreign trade contributes to the development of the division of labor and specialization of production, allows you to export surplus goods and overcome the narrowness of the domestic market. Trade with other countries also contributes to the improvement of technology, the growth of labor productivity, income and wealth. Smith argued that only under conditions of free trade would countries be able to take advantage of their neighbors, i.e. absolute (natural or acquired) advantages in the production and export of certain manufactured goods.

Smith believed that in determining the goods that are most profitable to sell to and buy from other countries, one should be guided by the rule of a judicious head of the family. The rule is not to try to make yourself a thing that will be cheaper to buy than to make. According to Smith, all people find it more profitable to spend all their labor in the area where they have some advantage over their neighbors, and to buy all the goods they need in exchange for a part of the product of their labor.

Based on this, the country should also buy those goods that other countries offer at a cheaper price than it can produce itself. In exchange, one should offer some part of the product of one's own industrial labor applied in that area in which there is some advantage.

According to Smith, one must look for an area in which labor can be used with the greatest benefit. Being an ardent supporter of free trade, Smith, however, admitted that under protectionism, with import restrictions separate industry industry can arise in the country sooner than under free trade. After some time, comparative advantages may appear, and the products of this industry will be manufactured at home cheaper than abroad.

Thus, according to Smith, when determining the international specialization of a country, i.e. what to produce and what to sell abroad, one should choose those goods that this country makes cheaper than others. Low prices, and hence low production costs, are provided by natural or acquired absolute advantages in their manufacture. And if there are no such advantages, then they must be created in order to receive benefits from foreign trade.

It is the higher efficiency in the production of goods that one country can have relative to another country, i.e. absolute advantages in the production of a particular product of one country relative to another country are the basis of trade between countries, according to the theory of A. Smith.

IN modern life the absolute advantages of countries in production costs or consumer properties of a particular product can only be a temporary phenomenon due to more productive technologies or very cheap raw materials, labor, energy.

1.3 David Ricardo's Theory of Comparative Advantage

English economist of the early 19th century. David Ricardo was a supporter of free trade and attached great importance to the development of trade relations with other countries. In his theory, he showed the impact of foreign trade on consumption, production and the rate of profit. Ricardo saw the usefulness of foreign trade in that it increases the mass and variety of goods on which income can be spent. In other words, foreign trade increases consumption and diversifies it.

On the other hand, as Ricardo believed, foreign trade also increases production. Foreign trade, thanks to the abundance and cheapness of imported goods, creates a propensity to save and to accumulate capital by reducing consumer spending. In addition, foreign trade can also increase profits by lowering wages if cheaper consumer goods are imported.

Ricardo believed that under a free trade system, each country would be able to expend its labor and capital on those industries that would bring it the greatest benefits. And this principle must be followed, because it leads to the most efficient and most economical division of labor among nations. Ricardo argued that it was this principle that determines that wine should be produced in France and Portugal, bread - in America and Poland, and various hardware and other goods - in England.

Ricardo showed that the possibilities of profitable commodity exchange between countries are much greater than A. Smith assumed. According to Smith, a country should be guided by absolute advantages over its partners and sell on the foreign market those goods that it makes cheaper than other countries. Developing Smith's ideas, Ricardo proved that any country can participate profitably in foreign trade, and not just countries with absolute advantages.

Even if a country does not have absolute advantages, it always has comparative advantages, i.e. there is always something she does better and cheaper than anything else. In his example (see table 12.3.) England has no absolute advantage over Portugal, because both cloth and wine require more workers (labor) in England than in Portugal. At the same time, in England, the production of cloth requires the labor of 100 workers during the year, and wine - 120 workers, so it is more profitable for England to import wine and export cloth.

Portugal has an absolute advantage over England in the production of both cloth and wine, for she expends less labor in the production of both. Nevertheless, it is more profitable for Portugal to use her capital in the production of wine, for which she will receive more cloth from England than she would produce herself if she transferred part of her capital from winemaking to the production of cloth. According to Ricardo's theory, each country should produce and export goods at a relatively lower cost, although they may be higher than in other countries.

Smith and Ricardo, in their search for the optimal structure of foreign trade, relied on the experience and interests of England, which at that time was the world leader in industrial production and trade. The interests of countries lagging behind England in economic development were most fully expressed by the German economist Friedrich List (F. List, 1789-1 846) , who laid the foundations of the catch-up development model in the 40s of the XIX century.

F. List rightly pointed out that the Smith-Ricardo theory ignores the fact of the uneven economic development of individual countries. He argued that countries with a backward industry under conditions of free trade are doomed to a one-sided development of their agriculture. List believed that in order to turn a backward country into an industrial power, protectionism was needed first to establish national production, and then free trade with fierce foreign competition.

1.4 Factor ratio theory

In the first half of the XIX century. Swedish economists E. Heckscher And B. Olin, continuing the teachings of Ricardo, came to the conclusion that international exchange stems from the relative abundance or from the relative scarcity of resources or factors of production (capital, labor, land) that are at the disposal of various countries. The comparative advantages of countries are determined by the factors of production that they have in abundance. International exchange is essentially an exchange of excess factors for rare (deficient) factors.

The degree of provision with factors of production determines the price of labor (wages), land (land rent) and capital (interest on capital). Factors that are available in relative abundance are cheap, those in short supply are expensive. Some countries have a relative abundance of land and labor and a severe shortage of capital. In such countries the produce of land and labor are cheap, and capital expensive. Therefore, they export goods, the production of which is dominated by raw materials and labor - labor-intensive and resource-intensive, and import capital-intensive.

Countries that are deficient in labor and land but have capital export capital-intensive goods and import labour-intensive, resource-intensive goods. Thus, the comparative advantages of a country in the production of certain goods are determined by the prices of the main factors of production in this country. Each country tends to specialize in that production for which the ratio of the factors of production at its disposal is most favorable.

Relatively abundant factors turn out to be cheaper than relatively limited ones. The price of factors of production induces the country to export goods, in the production of which excess, cheap factors predominate.

General conclusions of this theory:

o goods and services are exported, in the production of which excess factors predominate, goods and services are imported, in the production of which scarce factors predominate;

o the development of international trade leads to the equalization of factor prices, i.e. income received by the owner of this factor;

o with sufficient international mobility of factors of production, it is possible to replace the export of goods by the movement of the factors themselves between countries.

From the point of view of the theory of comparative advantages and factors of production, one can explain the structure of Russian exports, which is dominated by oil, gas, roundwood, steel, etc. In Russia, land and labor are relatively cheap, and exports are precisely those goods in which these relatively cheap factors of production.

1.5 Leontief's paradox

Wassily Leontief, a Russian-born American economist, made calculations using US foreign trade statistics for 1947 to test the correctness of the Heckscher-Ohlin factor ratio theory. the results of his calculations contradicted the main provisions of the theory. It turned out that the capital-saturated USA, which, according to the theory, should export capital-intensive goods and import labor-saturated ones; in practice, on the contrary, labor-intensive goods were exported, and capital-intensive goods were imported. Repeated calculations by Leontiev and other researchers of the US commodity structure gave the same results.

Calculations showed that Japan in the 1950s, being a clearly labor-surplus country, exported capital-intensive goods. India exported capital-intensive goods to the US. Calculations made in 1987 on 12 factors of production for 27 countries showed that in 30 cases out of 100 trade went in the opposite direction from the Heckscher-Ohlin theory.

Leontief's paradox is formulated as follows: labor-saturated countries export capital-intensive products, capital-saturated countries export labour-intensive products. This is explained by the fact that in the United States expensive highly skilled labor is used, the share of which in production costs exceeds the cost of capital. A highly skilled labor force with high training costs can be viewed as capital.
In countries that supply their products to the United States, scarce capital is so expensive that its share in production costs exceeds that of cheap labor and raw materials. American exports are dominated by labor-intensive products, as highly skilled labor is employed. US imports are produced by a low-skilled labor force. As a result, exports are more labor intensive than imports.

Depending on the production technology, the same product can be labor-intensive in a labor-abundant country and capital-intensive in a capital-abundant country, which can happen in conditions of high elasticity and interchangeability of production factors. For example, rice in the United States is capital-intensive, because it is grown using advanced expensive equipment, in Vietnam rice is labor-intensive, mainly manual labor is used in its production.

1.6 Product life cycle theory

Product life cycle theory is interesting because it explains how the US, the home of computers, has become a net importer of computers from developing countries. According to this theory, goods go through a certain life cycle, covering the period from the moment a product enters the market until it leaves the market. It consists of four stages (introduction, growth, maturity, decline). Depending on the stage of the product's life cycle, the direction of its exports and imports, and the country of its production are determined. - Computers and similar high-tech products do first appear in highly developed countries. The development of new products requires high costs and highly skilled labor. In developed countries, especially in the United States, there are high incomes that allow risky research, competition, demanding consumers with high solvency, scientists, skilled designers, and engineers.

At the first stage of the product life cycle (introduction) innovation is being developed, the product is produced in small batches, which makes it very expensive. The sale of a new product is first carried out within the country of innovation; it is based on uniqueness, not price. The product occupies an almost monopoly position in the market; then begins its export to developed countries with a similar market segment.

At the second stage (growth) the production of the product is still located in the country of innovation, but production begins in other developed countries. Production becomes more standardized, costs are reduced. The number of competitors is increasing, which, violating patent protection, adjust their production and reduce prices due to some modification of the product.

At the third stage (maturity) exports from the country of innovation are reduced. Large-scale standardized production is being carried out in many countries, including developing countries, since less skilled labor is required.

At the fourth stage (decline) production is concentrated in developing countries, the number of manufacturers is decreasing, production technology allows the use of unskilled labor in mechanical large-scale production. The country of innovation becomes a net importer and can start developing another innovation.

1.7 Basic principles of analysis by method"hexpenditure-output» V. Leontievand isfromstudies of the Leontief Paradox

In economics, the principle of interdependence of industries and sectors has a long history. Its origins can be found in the teachings of the Physiocrats - the economic table of Quesnay.

The reproduction scheme was developed by Marx. In his model, the economy consists of two divisions: the production of means of production and the production of consumer goods, which are interconnected by the so-called. terms of proportionality.

The merit of the first exact definition of the principle of interdependence belongs to Walras, who created a model of the general equilibrium of the economic system.

The first step towards the practical use of the theory of general equilibrium can be considered the model of the intersectoral economy L. In its developed form, it was first published in the work “The Structure of the American Economy in 1919-1929.” (1941). It should be noted that Leontiev largely relied on the reproduction model of the Russian economist V. Dmitriev, whose works he was well acquainted with. (This reproduction model was then developed in the theory of Piero Sraffa).

General Principles of Scheme Analysis"hexpenditure-output» . The economy is presented, on the one hand, as a set of product flows from one industry to another, and, on the other hand, as costs in various industries. Costs are arranged vertically, output horizontally. Each industry or sector appears in the model twice: as a producer of the corresponding product and as a consumer of costs. Economic ties between industries can be expressed both in physical terms and in terms of value.

Cross-industry analysis? it is a method of systematic quantification (quantitative description) of the relationships between different sectors of the economic system.

The input-output table describes the flows of goods and services between all sectors of the economy over a fixed period of time. The table, expressed in terms of values, can be interpreted as a system of national accounts.

The set of cost factors for all sectors of the economy under consideration is called the structural matrix. According to Leontiev, production costs are directly proportional to the volume of production. Therefore, it is possible to operate with homogeneous linear equations, abandoning the theory ultimate performance production factors. An increase in output means an increase in all types of costs in the industry.

To simplify, Leontiev does not use the principle of technical interchangeability of factors of production; each product is produced in only one sector; the costs of the consuming industry are determined by its own output.

If the total volume of output by industry is given and the structural coefficients are known, then it is possible to determine the volume of final demand for products by solving a system of n linear equations with n unknowns.

If we build an open version of the system (it is assumed that a number of variables are determined by factors external to the system), then we can see the similarity of intersectoral analysis with the theory of J.M. Keynes. This assumes the reverse sequence of the analysis: the final demand is determined in advance, and therefore quantities can be calculated that satisfy the final demand. If the volume of demand changes (as in the Keynesian model), then the scale of employment and output must also change. This version of intersectoral analysis has received practical application.

Thus, Leontief's approach combines the solution of complex problems economic balance with simplified assumptions of static analysis. As R. Goldsmith noted, input-output analysis is a reasonable approximation to Walrasian equations, if the latter are given a dynamic character. However, the main difficulty in their application lies in the timeliness of obtaining data, since in this case the Leontief tables turn into unproductive historical statistics.

A separate problem of the Leontief model is the assumption of fixed structural coefficients, assuming constant returns.

Leontief paradox (U.S. foreign trade paradox)- Leontiev decided to test the conclusions of the classical theory of comparative advantage of Ricardo and the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem that countries participating in international trade tend to export goods in the production of which intensively use factors that are surplus to them, and import goods in the production of which these factors are used less intensively. It was believed that in the US economy, capital is more abundant than that of its trading partners, while labor, on the contrary, is relatively scarce.

Leontiev obtained the ratio of fixed capital and the number of workers in the US export and import-substituting industries for 1947.

The verification conditions were as follows: if the conclusions of the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem are correct, and capital in the United States is really surplus, then, taking into account the contribution of all industries, the indicator of capital expenditure per worker (capital-labor ratio - Kx / Lx) in standard set of goods exported from the USA should be higher than that of import-substituting products (Km/Lm).

The paradoxical results obtained by Leontiev: it turned out that in 1947 the United States sold labor-intensive goods to other countries in exchange for relatively capital-intensive ones. The key parameter (Kx/Lx)/(Km/Lm) was 0.77, while, according to the Hescher-Ohlin theory, it should be greater than 1.

Leontiev and other economists approached this problem in different ways. The method has been repeatedly tested and found to be basically correct. There was no doubt about the excess of capital in the US compared to other countries.

The most fruitful solution to the paradox turned out to be a more detailed division in the analysis of the factors of capital and labor, taking into account their different types. Studies have shown that industrial capital is by no means the most abundant factor of production in the United States. The first place here belongs to cultivated land (that is, capital invested in land) and scientific and technical personnel. Indeed, the US is a net exporter of goods that make heavy use of these factors of production, consistent with the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem.