From time to time, experts put forward very optimistic forecasts that the Russian economy will soon return to pre-crisis levels, the purchasing power of the population will show growth, and business, including in the field of logistics, will bring tangible profits.

Yes, according to preliminary results, in the first half of 2017, cargo turnover in the segment grew by 9%. But this indicator cannot yet be attributed to a stable trend, since the market has not yet recovered from the losses suffered. How is the freight transportation market developing in modern conditions, should we expect changes in base tariffs, and what influence does the state have on the development of the market?

Freight market analysis

The role of the transport and logistics industry in the Russian economy is quite large - it is 5.6% of GDP, which is comparable to India and higher than that of other developed countries such as Germany and the United States. The per capita value added of this sector in Russia, which is $717 per person, is significantly higher than in other BRIC countries, but inferior to the US and Germany. At the same time, one of the drivers of growth in the volume of cargo transportation was the European direction, where exports grew by 20.07%.

According to Rosstat, the freight turnover of road transport from January to August 2017 amounted to 153.6 billion km / ton, which is 4.2% higher than was recorded in the same period last year. There is also a positive trend in freight transport. Thus, transportation of goods by road in August this year amounted to 507.7 million tons, or 102.2% by August 2016 and 104.8% by July 2017.

Despite the fact that road shipments in the overall structure of cargo transportation, according to Rosstat, already occupy a leading position (more than 65%), they tend to grow. This, first of all, is facilitated by a decrease in the average size of freight shipments, which allowed carriers to "pull" customers from competing companies, including railway operators. In addition, many companies have recently begun to more closely monitor logistics costs, so they more often use trunk vehicles in medium and long distances.

The influence of the state on cargo transportation

The development of the road freight transportation market is influenced by the legislative activity of the state. In particular, we are talking about the Platon system, which was developed in order to collect an additional tax for the construction and maintenance of an automobile transport network in working order. The system covers cars with a total mass exceeding 12 tons.

Platon was launched at the end of 2015, which was one of the factors behind the increase in tariffs for road freight transport in 2016. If before "Platon" the average monthly negative indicators of freight turnover by road transport fluctuated within 4.5%, then after the introduction of the system, according to Rosstat, they began to grow even more rapidly, reaching 7.6% in November.

At the same time, on July 1 of this year, the fare on federal roads was supposed to be indexed. However, one of the amendments to the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation “On Certain Issues of Charging Payments for Compensation for Damage Caused to Public Highways of Federal Importance by Vehicles with a Permissible Maximum Weight of Over 12 Tons” postpones indexation for 1 year.

Thus, already next summer, a noticeable increase in tariffs for cargo transportation in the Platon system is expected, so that for small and medium-sized businesses, logistics will again rise in price. It is worth noting that in 2018 the fare will be indexed taking into account the entire period that began on November 15, 2015. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of such a system raises certain doubts, including among specialists.

According to open information, the state spends 1 trillion rubles on the construction and maintenance of roads. rubles per year. The introduction of the Platon system implies the receipt of 40 billion rubles within 12 months. According to experts, the damage caused to the roadway by heavy vehicles is about 2.5 trillion. rubles per year. These figures do not at all clarify the picture, and many still do not understand how the money received as a result of additional collection will help to cope with the problem of broken roads.

Expert forecasts

The growing need for a reliable and affordable freight service, in many ways, becomes the key to the success of this type of business in modern conditions. Analysts note that today it is important not only to deliver the goods on time, but also to provide the client with additional services for insurance and cargo tracking, acceptable resolution of disputes, and so on. The unconditional winners will be those logistics organizations that will not spare investments in IT infrastructure and equipment, which allows, for example, to apply optimal traffic algorithms, speed up the processing of goods in a warehouse, analyze cargo flows and much more.

Based on forecasts for the growth of cargo transportation, experts expect an increase in the activity of carriers in the near future, which in the current conditions are becoming one of the few reliable borrowers of leasing companies. Specialists of the commercial vehicle market have been saying for many years that there is pent-up demand in this segment of the automotive industry, which this year has already begun to manifest itself in the form of sales growth. According to the Avtostat agency, since January of this year, sales of trucks have grown by 2.2% - up to 46.4 thousand vehicles. Expectations of growth in world oil prices against the backdrop of a stable ruble exchange rate and the achievement of low inflation in the country will allow motorists to hope that these investments will justify themselves.

Taking into account the statistical data, as well as expert forecasts, it can be assumed that 2017 will become a kind of “moment of truth” for many transport and logistics companies.

The determining factors for the development of the market will be high competencies, the ability to adapt to unstable, constantly changing market conditions, as well as a reasonable ratio of price and quality of services provided. Experts expect a fundamental turning point in the situation no earlier than 2018.

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2015 was not an easy year for the transport industry - sanctions, tax increases, falling foreign trade and consumer demand led to significant changes in the market - in the new economic conditions, companies had to choose not only new routes, but also alternative modes of transport. Today, most experts note that a serious crisis has already begun in the industry, and this is confirmed by statistics.

According to Rosstat, over the past four years, cargo turnover has remained virtually unchanged, despite the positive dynamics of foreign trade. In January-December 2015, it even grew by 0.5% and amounted to 5089.6 billion ton-kilometers. However, behind these stable data lies a very unpleasant circumstance: during the same period, there was an annual decrease in the volume of transported goods. If in 2012 8.5 million tons were transported, then in 2015 it was less than 7.5 million tons. At the same time, the decline compared to last year was more than 5%.

Today, road freight carriers, which account for the bulk of the loading, are losing market share, while the sea and rail segments are increasing. This is due to the fact that in physical terms, both imports and exports of most consumer goods have significantly decreased, namely, they were transported by road. Imports of foodstuffs, machinery, and household chemicals have decreased several times. At the same time, due to the low exchange rate of the ruble, Russia has increased its export supplies of many raw materials - oil, gas, grain, metals, which are shipped abroad by sea and other modes of transport. Sanctions and the food embargo have also played their part: while trade with Europe has declined, the proportion of Asia-Pacific countries that are more logistically dependent on other delivery methods has increased.

Ultimately, the volume of road transport fell by 7% to 5 billion tons, while at the same time it increased by 18% to 18.3 million tons in maritime transport. At the same time, the volume of loading on railway, inland waterway, air and pipeline transport remained unchanged.

The volume of road transport fell by 12% already in January last year, when Russia's foreign trade turnover collapsed by 34%. The devaluation of the ruble partly helped Russian road carriers - by the end of the year, domestic exporters increased the volume of deliveries of certain products several times, but they failed to correct the situation in the industry - the demand for their services decreased, and a decrease in the volume of transported goods was observed monthly.

Trucking companies have also faced other challenges: transportation costs, fuel and lease payments have risen, and high interest rates on loans continue to stifle business. The increased tariffs for CASCO and OSAGO did not add optimism either.

However, economic difficulties pale in comparison with the “care and support” that our state provided to carriers.

Back in early 2015, the problem with TIR Carnets was not resolved - the customs authorities limited its use on the territory of Russia, as a result of which almost the entire transit flow was concentrated in one narrow corridor on the territory of the North-Western Federal District. As a result, transit through Russia became even less attractive than before, and the decline in trade with EU countries ultimately hit companies in this region the hardest. According to the results of January-October 2015, the volume of road cargo transportation from Europe to Russia fell by 34%.

Also, during the past year, the Order of the Ministry of Transport of August 21, 2013 No. 273 “On Approval of the Procedure for Equipping Vehicles with Tachographs” was actively implemented. These devices not only had to be installed on all vehicles at their own expense, but also regularly serviced.

By the end of the year, the state decided to finally finish off the industry and introduced a fee for the passage of heavy trucks on federal roads - the so-called "Platon" system. The fare was set at 1.53 rubles per 1 km. For most carriers, this has resulted in a multiple increase in costs - for example, Danon notes that its transportation costs have doubled. Many small businesses are now completely forced to leave the market - payments exceed their monthly earnings.

Although analysts predict that the introduction of Platon will eventually cause consumer prices to rise, hauliers cannot shift the increased costs entirely to their customers - due to falling demand, companies are simply unable to increase tariffs and are forced to operate at a loss. According to Rosstat, the tariffs for road freight transportation showed the most insignificant growth compared to other modes of transport - they grew by only 6% over the year, while the overall growth in tariffs was 11.5%.

Despite the fact that road transportation is much more convenient in terms of logistics and delivery time, economic factors and administrative barriers have led to the fact that by the end of the year the freight traffic began to shift more and more to the railway. After the introduction of the Plato system in November, the volume of rail traffic in December increased by 1%, while during the rest of the months it did not exceed last year's figures.

However, not everyone is ready to switch to rail transport today. For owners of small and medium-sized cargo, transportation by rail is still unprofitable: the principle of door-to-door delivery does not work, it is more difficult to plan deliveries, and additional costs associated with loading and unloading goods must be incurred. Market participants are also stopped by sharply increased tariffs - at the beginning of 2015, they increased by 10% for all Russian Railways transportation, and in addition to this, the Federal Tariff Service established the maximum permissible deviation from it. As a result, RZhD introduced a 13.4% tariff surcharge on the transportation of a number of exported goods, including key commodities such as oil and oil products, grains and metal products. After such reforms, the demand for rail transportation has decreased - this is especially evident in the first half of the year. Moreover, individual enterprises, whose activities are closely related to transportation, even preferred to reduce their output, especially against the backdrop of a decrease in demand for it from China. So, despite the growth in physical volumes of exports, the volume of rail transportation of oil and oil products (-2%), construction cargo (-7.3%), cement (-20%), ferrous scrap (-11%) fell.

On average, according to Rosstat, tariffs increased by 12.9%. At the same time, the profit of Russian Railways in the first half of the year increased eight times - to 18.26 billion rubles. In 2016, it is planned to increase tariffs by another 9%, and ultimately this will also affect consumers.

The situation is slightly better in maritime transport, in 2015 the volume of maritime cargo transportation amounted to 118.1 million tons, an increase of 17% compared to the previous year. The increase is dictated mainly by foreign trade reasons - the physical volumes of exports of goods supplied to Asian countries have grown, which has been especially pronounced since the fall of 2015. In December, the volume of traffic increased by 62% compared to the same month last year.

Along with the growth of maritime traffic, the cargo turnover of ports also increased - in January-December it amounted to 676.7 million tons, which is 5.7% higher than the same indicator last year. At the same time, it was export cargoes that showed the greatest growth - 539.1 million tons (+7.7%). Transshipments of coal (+6%), grain (+15.1%), ferrous metals (+12.2%), timber (+10.7%) increased.

At the same time, the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin (+10.2%), as well as the Far East (+5.2%) showed the best dynamics. It was on them that the key export flows of domestic raw materials abroad were concentrated.

Due to high transport costs for road and rail transport, more and more companies prefer new ways of transporting goods. Cargo transportation by ferries almost doubled, and the cargo turnover of cabotage transportation increased by 15.6% - up to 56.1 million tons. Despite projects for the development of port and railway infrastructure, the creation of access roads and terminal and logistics centers, the use of road transport and the subsequent reloading of goods on ships is still a priority. Delivery of goods to seaports by road increased by 12.3% to 54.2 million tons.

River transport has not yet become a popular alternative for carriers, the rivers in Russia transport mainly bulk cargo and minerals, and companies that are within transport accessibility from the waterway carry out transportation. However, there have been some shifts here too - the volume of shipments from ports via inland waterways increased 2.5 times to 346 thousand tons, while dry cargo - almost five times. The devaluation of the ruble made the purchase of imported goods much more expensive, and the savings forced traders to choose a cheaper method of transportation over long distances.

The volume of air cargo transportation in Russia is small - according to Rosstat, only 1.1 million tons of cargo were transported in 2015. By air, Russia mainly receives goods sent by international postal items: equipment, clothing, printed matter, food and other consumer goods. The largest market share is occupied by goods imported from non-CIS countries. In the first half of the year, traffic volumes steadily increased compared to the previous year, however, a further weakening of the ruble since August led to a decline in purchases of foreign goods and, as a result, the volume of air cargo transportation.

According to the Federal Air Transport Agency, the volume of international cargo transportation fell by 8.7%, and domestic - by 14.2%. However, the real scale of the decline is much wider - the largest share of the cargo transportation market is occupied by the Airbridgecargo company - it accounts for 58% of the total volume of transported cargo. At the same time, the company mainly carries out international transit, and most of its cargo enters Russia only at an intermediate landing. A similar situation is observed with Aeroflot and a number of other companies. Transit traffic, which showed an increase this year, is counted by the statistics authorities as international, but it is not related to production or prices.

In the meantime, other problems are brewing in the industry - international sanctions, rising fuel prices and an increase in the cost of maintaining the fleet of aircraft have also led to an increase in costs against the backdrop of declining demand, and after the exit of Transaero from the market, many destinations are still not closed by other carriers .

Thus, today the reduction in foreign trade flows has had a negative impact on the freight market, and the devaluation of the ruble and the fall in oil prices have led to an increase in the costs not only of individual companies, but of entire industries. Today, there is a reduction in investment and a freeze in construction everywhere. At the same time, the state continues to tighten the screws and increase taxes, leaving no room for the market to develop.

The groupage cargo transportation segment, due to its specifics, remains the most non-transparent in the field of logistics services: it is rarely written about (especially in comparison with warehouse logistics and 3PL), and its representatives are usually not inclined to disclose detailed information about their activities.

With the help of industry experts, we tried to understand the current state of the groupage shipping market and assess its prospects.

Logistics companies in the groupage sector provide long-distance delivery services for relatively small packages, allowing shippers to avoid unnecessary transport costs. They consolidate shipments of different customers at their terminal to the economically justified volume of transportation and arrange delivery to the terminal at the destination, where the cargo is disbanded and delivered to the recipients.

It is important that most of the shipments fall on the share of enterprises, and not on parcels of individuals. The weight range of such shipments can vary from 1 kg to 10 tons, lighter loads fall into the category of parcels and are accepted by companies specializing in consolidated cargo transportation, only as an exception.

According to RBC.research, the market for logistics services in Russia in 2012 amounted to 260 billion rubles, that is, 12.7% of the total market for transport and logistics services. In the developed countries of Europe and America, this figure reaches 50% or more. Based on such a comparison, experts have been predicting a rapid outstripping growth of the logistics market in Russia for more than a decade, but it has not yet been observed. It is unlikely that in the absence of structural reforms in the economy, this figure will exceed 15-17% in the foreseeable future.

But 260 billion is the volume of the entire market, and what percentage is in the groupage cargo transportation segment? Strategy Partners Group conducted a comparative analysis of the data using indicators from countries where relevant statistics are kept. In particular, the market for the transportation of groupage cargoes in the United States was considered as fully formed and at the same time commensurate with Russia in terms of delivery distance.

The term “groupage cargo” used in Russia falls into two different categories in the USA, which are always considered separately. These are parcels (weighing from 1 to 68 kg) and LTL (Less than Truck Load, heavier shipments, consolidated with other shipments for transportation in one vehicle). The $44 billion parcel delivery segment is home to courier companies such as FedEx, UPS and others. In the LTL segment of 39 billion, in addition to the aforementioned courier companies, there are also trucking companies such as YRC, ODFL, ABF, and rail carriers. The largest player in LTL is FedEx with $5 billion in revenue, 13% of the segment's total. “These numbers show how much the US trucking market has changed over the past 30 years. In the 80s, neither FedEx nor UPS had a presence in this segment, and now they have the tidbits, while LTL operators are fighting for the remaining customers, ”comments Andreas Appli, consultant at Cambridge Systematics, a world leader in transport planning.

With a total volume of the US market of transport and logistics services of 1.3 trillion dollars, the share of parcels and LTL segments in it is 7.2%. With allowance for the underdevelopment of the market and the high share of cargo transportation by own vehicles, it can be expected that in Russia this share is significantly lower. Most likely, this figure is closer to Poland, where the share of the groupage cargo segment is 4.0%. This indicator can be considered a moderately optimistic assessment of this segment of the logistics services market in Russia. Accordingly, the volume of the groupage cargo transportation segment in Russia is about 70 billion rubles. The largest company in the segment is ZhelDorEkspeditsiya, with a market share of about 15%. This is followed by "Business Lines" and PEK.

“The groupage transportation segment will, of course, grow in proportion to the growth of the economy - choose the forecast that you like best. In this case, its structure will change significantly. The displacement of traditional "collectors" from the "parcel" sub-segment by courier companies is only a matter of time. It is already quite active, for example, DPD, Pony Express. Others will also catch up - in the course of diversification beyond the core business,” says Alexander Ermakov, director of the consulting company Strategy Partners Group.

According to experts, the groupage transportation segment will continue its inertial growth, reaching by 2020 a volume of 80 billion rubles under the pessimistic scenario and 100 billion rubles under the optimistic scenario, while there will be significant changes in the supply structure with the strengthening of the positions of courier companies.

“It is most likely that the groupage cargo market in Russia in 2014 will remain at the level of 2013 in terms of shipped weight and volume. With the adverse impact of macroeconomic factors, it is possible to reduce freight turnover in relation to 2013 to 3%. In monetary terms, growth is also not expected, because, despite the increase in costs caused by the rise in the cost of fuels and lubricants and the growth of tariffs of natural monopolies, transport companies will not be able to increase tariffs without losing their market share due to increased competition due to increased competition. Explosive growth of road transportation in the groupage cargo market will not happen in the near future, especially over long distances, since rail transportation by mail and luggage cars provides a higher speed of delivery and safety of cargo,” says Nikolay Shadrin, head of the commercial analytics department at ZheldorEkspeditsiya Group of Companies.

Evgeny Firsov, General Director of PEK, assessed the groupage transportation market a little more optimistically: “Today, there are no official data on volumes in cargo turnover and ruble equivalent, so any expert assessments are their subjective vision of the market. According to the estimates of the PEK company, the groupage cargo market today is about 80-90 billion rubles. Of course, now there is a slowdown in the development of the market, but we do not foresee stagnation. If we think according to the optimistic scenario, then we predict the market growth from 2 to 6% per year (in comparable prices). A possible crisis predicted by a number of experts should not seriously affect our industry. We do not expect explosive market growth.”

The analysis of the Russian groupage cargo transportation market is complicated by the fact that market players are not inclined to disclose the details of their activities: when describing the general situation, they prefer to keep silent about specific figures. However, industry experts, assessing the situation on the market differently, agree on one thing - it is not yet necessary to expect a rapid growth of the segment.

At the beginning of the year, the consulting company Strategy Partners Group conducted a comparative analysis of the data, using indicators from countries where relevant statistics are kept. In particular, data were used from the United States, as a country comparable to Russia in terms of delivery distance, and Poland, where the level of development of the segment is comparable to the domestic one. Taking into account the fact that, in general, the logistics market in our country is estimated at 260 billion rubles, that is, 12.7% of the total volume of the transport and logistics services market, the groupage transportation segment was estimated by Strategy Partners Group experts at 72 billion rubles.

There are other, less optimistic assessments of the current market situation. In particular, Viktor Bortsov, head of the Russian Railways department, estimates the segment at no more than 58-60 billion rubles. This opinion is also supported by other companies operating in the groupage cargo delivery segment.

As for the largest players, the leader of the segment is Zheldorekspeditsiya (which share is about 15%). This is followed by "Business Lines" and PEK.

Today, there is an ambiguous situation on the groupage cargo transportation market: the largest companies do not want to exchange information with their colleagues, while the further development of the industry requires a productive dialogue from the players. In March, the portal Infranews took the first step towards overcoming this obstacle and carried out. The speakers included representatives of the companies "Strategy Partners Group", "Delovye Linii", "RZHDL" and "Svetlana"-K. Among the guests were also representatives of Sberbank Leasing, Eximp Logistic, Baikal and STS Asia.

The positive outcome of this conference can be attributed at least to the fact that its participants were able to exchange views and confirm or refute the assessments of other representatives of the industry. Thus, the participants of the meeting unanimously agreed that the main trend of the market is a slight increase in cargo traffic. The crisis is forcing companies to consider alternative modes of transportation, and road transport, although not the most budgetary, is the most convenient option in this case. The opinion about the impossibility of market consolidation was equally unequivocal: in the presence of clear leaders and many small companies, the formation of a monopolist is too unlikely.

According to experts, the groupage transportation segment will continue its inertial growth, reaching by 2020 a volume of 80 billion rubles under the pessimistic scenario and 100 billion rubles under the optimistic scenario, while there will be significant changes in the supply structure with the strengthening of the positions of courier companies. The fact is that the bulk of the market falls on consumer goods. The 2000s were marked by a noticeable increase in consumer activity of the population, which naturally affected the volume of cargo transportation. In the current economic situation, high demand for goods with high added value is not to be expected. In this light, the area of ​​e-commerce looks the most promising, but this will not have a significant impact on the entire market.

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1. INTRODUCTION

The segment of cargo transportation services (without pipeline transport) includes the activities of specialized transport organizations and entrepreneurs (individuals) working for hire. Rosstat includes here commercial freight traffic carried out by road, rail, inland waterways, sea and air.

Road freight transportation is an integral link in the chain connecting the manufacturer of goods and the end consumer. Unlike air or sea transport, road delivery does not depend on the season, and compared to rail transport, truck transport has a high degree of mobility and can deliver cargo to almost any place. In addition, this type of cargo transportation is the most cost-effective for the shipper.

2. MARKET ANALYSIS

The main macroeconomic indicator is traditionally the country's GDP, which reflects in aggregate all the processes taking place in the national economy. Starting from the 3rd quarter of 2011, Russia's GDP shows a stable downward trend (Fig. 1). At the same time, if before 2014 there was only a reduction in growth rates, then in the second half of 2014 and further, GDP began to decline.

Figure 1. Quarterly dynamics of Russia's GDP, 2008-2015, billion rubles and % to the previous period (according to Rosstat)

Several obvious factors became the prerequisites for such a decline: sanctions from the EU and the USA, depreciation of the national currency, falling oil prices and, as a result, a decrease in the welfare and solvency of most of the country's population. There was also a significant increase in the cost of imported products - both food and non-food products. According to Rosstat, in 2014 alone, prices for goods and services increased by an average of 11.4% compared to 2013. Prices for food products increased by 15.4%, for non-food products - by 8.1%.

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Against the backdrop of a slowdown in economic growth in the country, the volume of cargo transportation by all modes of transport, except for air, is also declining. According to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the volume of cargo transportation in the country in 2014 amounted to 6,776.5 million tons; the decrease by 2013 was 3.5%. The volume of commercial cargo transportation alone in 2014 amounted to 2,978.6 million tons, which is 3.3% lower than in 2013.

The industry has a high share of outsourcing, which, according to experts, is related to the peculiarities of the development of the transport market in the country:

the total freight turnover is dominated by rail transportation carried out by the monopoly of the industry - Russian Railways

sea, inland water and air cargo transportation is carried out by specialized transport companies

The exception is the trucking industry. Many manufacturing and trading companies have their own road transport, which leads to a high share of cargo transportation by non-transport organizations. As of 2014, more than 70% of cargo transportation and about 51% of cargo turnover were carried out by commercial organizations' own transport.

Figure 2. Dynamics of commercial transportation of goods and cargo turnover of transport of all sectors of the Russian economy in 2008-2015, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research), %

In 2014, the volume of cargo transportation by all modes of transport, except for air, decreased. This segment grew by 3%. The share of rail transport increased in the structure of cargo transportation. At the same time, the share of road transport is about 55%. The structure of freight turnover is dominated by rail transport, which accounts for 90.9%, while the share of road transport is only 4.8%.

Figure 3. Dynamics of commercial transportation of goods and cargo turnover by mode of transport of all sectors of the economy, 2013-2014, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

Figure 4. Dynamics of commercial transportation of goods and cargo turnover by mode of transport of all sectors of the economy, 2014-2015, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

Figure 5. Structure of commercial transportation of goods by mode of transport of the Russian Federation, 2014, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

Figure 6. Structure of commercial freight turnover by mode of transport in the Russian Federation, 2014, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

The cargo transportation segment is an indicator of consumer activity in the country. Since the first half of 2015, the volume of cargo transportation has been steadily declining, which is associated with a decline in the solvency of the population and a subsidence of the consumer market.

According to experts, the dynamics of the market in the near future will be determined to a large extent by external factors: lower commodity prices and rising consumer prices, financial market volatility, and geopolitical risks.

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Figure 7. Main risk factors for transport services (according to RBC Market Research)

	Likely consequences for the Russian Federation	Probability of implementation and assessment of the impact on cargo flows
economic recession	Capital outflow and decrease in consumer activity, falling production volumes, exit from the market of small and medium-sized businesses Slowdown in the growth of incomes of the population, reduction in effective demand High inflation Weakening of the national currency	Inevitably Reducing the volume of domestic and international traffic Reducing the possibilities of financial support from the state Reduced demand for commercial freight Departure from the market of players with a high share of credit and leasing liabilities
Introduction of mutual restrictive measures (sanctions)	Decreased investment opportunities for the government and public corporations Rise in the cost of borrowed funds Reducing mutual trade with the EU, reducing imports and exports Reorientation to new markets Restriction of access to international financial markets, liquidity crisis	Inevitably Reducing the volume of international destinations (European markets) by 65-70% Increasing the importance of maritime transport and ports as transport hubs (imports of goods from developing countries) Increasing cargo traffic from China by land transport Deterioration in the financial condition of transport and logistics companies

Many companies compensate for the decline in volumes by raising tariffs. However, the increase in the cost of transportation in most cases does not compensate for the increase in costs.

Figure 7. Dynamics of the Russian market of transport services, 2008-2015, billion rubles and % (according to RBC Market Research)

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Figure 8. Structure of the Russian transport and logistics market by type of service (according to RBC Market Research)

The main trends in the development of the transport and forwarding services market, experts include: continued decline in commercial traffic and freight turnover, falling cost and physical indicators of international transportation, increased competition.

Figure 9. Risk factors, main trends and anti-crisis measures in the trucking market (according to RBC Market Research)

According to Rosstat, in 2015, the fleet of road transport of commercial cargo carriers amounted to more than 6 million units. According to the analytical agency "AUTOSTAT", the fleet of vehicles with a carrying capacity of more than 3.5 tons was about 3.73 million units. Active renewal of the fleet took place in 2011-2014.

According to market participants, the profitability of commercial cargo transportation by road decreased from 14-17% to 8-10%, forwarding companies - from 6-7% to 1.5-4%.

Figure 10. The structure of the Russian market of road freight transportation by type of cargo (in monetary terms), % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

The largest growth in volumes in recent years has been in the groupage cargo segment. Market participants estimate the volume of the segment in the range of 60-90 billion rubles. According to experts' forecasts, by 2020 the volume may reach 80-100 billion rubles. depending on the implementation of the pessimistic or optimistic scenario.

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Figure 11. Dynamics of export and import cargo traffic in Russia, 2008-2015, % (according to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

Among the factors of influence that will affect the development of the road freight transportation industry in the near future are the following:

reorientation of capital from the markets of developing countries to the US markets (production of a new technological cycle)

Formation of global trading blocs, decline in the WTO

Slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy and production, reorientation of production to less material-intensive and high-tech industries, which will lead to a decrease in the flow of imports into the country

Weak growth and consumption in commodity-dependent countries

According to RBC Market Research, the decline in the road freight market will stop in the coming years. So, for example, at the end of 2016, a fall of no more than 2% is expected. And in 2017, a positive dynamics of demand is expected. However, in the period up to 2018, the volume of road freight transport will not reach the level of 2014.

Figure 12. Forecast of the dynamics of commercial freight turnover of transport in all sectors of the economy, 2012-2018, billion t-km, % (according to RBC Market Research)

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